Micropayments are a workable model, but the most commonly pitched ideas for implementation are pretty bad: in music industry they differ little from the “DAT Tax” or “CD-R Music” scheme. People with track records, who have already made it will make a few bucks, everyone else gets scraps. The most promoted model these days is based on the ASCAP model for broadcast rights tracking, which is inferior to SESACs because it uses charts and other metrics to divine an imaginary payment schedule. SESAC polls fewer stations, but bases on all royalty payments on actual spins/plays. The ASCAP model is convoluted, inherently (and accepted as) inaccurate, and is designed to miss low-volume spins, while over-estimating popularity (and revenue for) hits. So there’s some work to be done on these models.

The good news: in new media, real numbers are in fact knowable, so there’s no need for the kinds of micropayment schemes being pitched by major labels.

The bad news: throwing up your hands and forcing ISPs to pay some flat statutory rate is model that emphasizes “micro” and really doesn’t solve the bigger problem of generating sufficient revenue to avoid artist dumpster-diving.

Nonetheless, Carolla’s podcast adventure is positive. It suggests a new kind of programming, and comes with it’s own audience built-in. Free of the pressure to earn, he’s freed to be more creative, whenever he decides to get up in the morning. The result is unique content, and a fairly sustainable model by any of the means you mention. Progress.

I wouldn’t say broadcast is dying, but it’s clearly mutating. It has a clear role in disseminating local information on a real time basis, and barring major change in the human condition, that’s a real benefit. Ironically, HD Radio might hurt radio in the short term; it splits the audience, de-emphasizes real-time data, and lacks the universal compatibility and simplicity of analog broadcast (if we were nuked tomorrow, I could build a functioning crystal set from junk laying around my house). While animated Flash baseball diamonds offer a new way to enjoy a ball game, they pale in comparison to a broadcast by Marty Brenneman. Games on TV are only as good as the announcers too. So for some things, radio is pretty ideal and thus will be around for awhile.

Thanks for the comments! Drop more!